BTC Up or Down FAQ and glossary

BTC Up or Down is a short-term Bitcoin prediction market. Each round records a starting price, called the price to beat, and asks whether BTC will finish at or above it (UP) or below it (DOWN) when the round ends. Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0.

Yes. You can play BTC Up or Down free in your browser, with no download, no sign-up, no deposit and no wallet.

No. You start with $1,000 of play money and nothing can be deposited or withdrawn. It is a practice tool, so you can't win or lose real money.

No. BTC Up/Down is an independent simulator and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. It copies the format of short-term Bitcoin Up or Down markets so you can practise, but the prices come from a model, not their order books.

No. Share prices come from a model based on live Bitcoin prices, the time left and recent volatility. Real markets can trade above or below that fair value depending on who is buying and selling.

The price to beat is Bitcoin's price at the start of the round. UP wins if BTC finishes at or above it and DOWN wins if it finishes below. In BTC Up/Down it comes from the live exchange feed. Real markets set it from the source named in their rules.

A share priced at 60 cents pays $1 if it wins, so the market is giving that side roughly a 60% chance. You profit over time only if that side wins more than 60% of the time once costs are included.

On the clock. 5-minute rounds start at :00, :05, :10 and so on. 15-minute rounds start at :00, :15, :30 and :45. If you arrive mid-round you join the round already running, the same way the real markets work.

You join the round in progress. The price to beat is BTC's price at the start of the round, looked up from Binance. If that lookup fails, your join price is used instead and marked with an asterisk.

UP wins ties in BTC Up/Down. Polymarket's Bitcoin Up or Down markets and Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contracts also settle ties in favour of Up/YES, but rules can change, so always read them.

Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin series opens a new window every quarter hour. Its target is the previous window's final value, and it settles on the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index averaged over the final minute. Check Kalshi's current contract rules before trading.

It depends on the platform. Kalshi's taker fee on its 15-minute Bitcoin series has been 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), about 1.75 cents per contract at a 50 cent price. Polymarket publishes its own fee schedule. BTC Up/Down has no fees, but it does include a 2 cent spread.

Each price is the estimated chance that BTC finishes above or below the price to beat, worked out from how far BTC is from that price, how much time is left and how volatile Bitcoin has been over the last few minutes. A 2 cent spread is added, like a real order book.

Both sides carry a small spread. With BTC level and plenty of time left, the fair price of each side is about 50 cents, and you buy slightly above that.

Your shares are valued at the price you could sell them for right now. If BTC rose only a little but time passed, or volatility jumped, the chance of UP winning may have barely changed, and selling also costs you the spread.

Yes. Your bets table has a Sell button that sells your shares at the current price, so you can lock in a profit or cut a loss. Betting and selling close in the final second of each round.

Some traders do, but it's hard. Over five minutes Bitcoin moves close to randomly, prices already reflect the obvious, and fees and spreads eat small edges. Practising with play money is a cheap way to see whether you have any edge before risking real money.

Mostly no. Over a few minutes Bitcoin moves close to randomly. The skill these markets reward is pricing: knowing when 80 cents is too much to pay for a side that is only likely, not certain.

It helps you learn how these markets price time and distance, and how fast odds move near the close. It cannot give you an edge: short-term Bitcoin moves are close to random, and the spread works against frequent traders.

Some prediction markets list longer Bitcoin Up or Down windows as well as 5 and 15 minute ones. BTC Up/Down covers rounds from 5 seconds to 15 minutes, and the same pricing skills apply to longer windows.

Not yet. BTC Up/Down covers Bitcoin only. Similar short-term markets exist for other coins on some platforms, and the skills you practise here apply to them too.

Live public trade feeds from Binance (BTC/USDT) by default, with Coinbase and Kraken as automatic backups. You can pick a feed in Pro view.

A round is void if the live price feed went quiet or switched to a different exchange before the round ended. Any bets are refunded at cost.

Start with 60-second or 5-minute rounds. They're short enough to play many rounds, but long enough to see how the odds change as time runs down.

Yes. It runs in any modern browser on iPhone, Android, tablet or desktop. There's nothing to install.

No. The game needs an internet connection to stream live Bitcoin prices.

No. Your balance and history are saved in your browser on this device. Clearing your browser data resets them.

No account, no sign-up and no personal details. Your balance and round history are stored only in your own browser. The page connects to public exchange price feeds to show live prices.

Press RESET BALANCE under Your history, then press it again to confirm. You get a fresh $1,000 and your round history is cleared.

No money is involved. You play with $1,000 of practice money that has no cash value, so nothing can be won or lost.

No. It's an educational game. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell or bet on Bitcoin or any prediction market.

No. BTC Up/Down is a free simulator. There are no deposits, withdrawals, prizes or real-money bets, and your $1,000 is play money with no cash value.

Yes. BTC Up/Down has free 5-second, 15-second, 30-second, 60-second and 2-minute Bitcoin Up or Down rounds on live prices, with no sign-up or deposit.

BTC Up/Down's shortest rounds last 5 seconds. Real-money binary options can be just as short, while prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi start at 5 and 15 minutes.

Binary options demo accounts let you practise, but you have to register with a broker that wants you to deposit. BTC Up/Down needs no account, never takes money and publishes how its prices are calculated.

Yes. BTC Up/Down is completely free with play money. Real-money versions on prediction markets and elsewhere require a deposit.

Yes. Every round length runs at the same time, so you can hold a 15-minute bet while playing 30-second rounds. Switching length never cancels a bet. Each one settles on its own clock and shows in Your open bets until it does.

Yes. BTC Up/Down has free 5-second Bitcoin Up or Down rounds. You get about four seconds to bet before betting closes in the final second, and they roll straight into the next round. They're mostly noise, so treat them as practice in reading fast odds rather than prediction.